The majority of people who fail at things don’t fail because they lack knowledge or know how. The real reason, at least from my perspective, is because they either misjudge or can’t get beyond the first order consequences of what they are hoping to achieve.
What is a first order consequence?
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First order consequences aren’t a new thing. I was first introduced to the concept by Ray Dalio’s wonderful principles pdf (obviously meant for new hires to digest at Bridgewater.) The entire pdf is worth the download. Mine has been read more than a dozen times with digital scribbles throughout….
The first order consequence is usually the immediate consequence of an action.
Here’s an example. Let’s say I want to learn php (I do..and am, by the way). The first order consequence for me learning php would be it would take time away from doing something else instead and it would require me to go through the foundational principles of learning a programming language…which incidentally is boring.
So boring that most can’t bear to bring themselves to learn it when they could be doing something that is much easier.
This is the point where most people stop. They initially commit, not realizing the level of commitment required to reach the “reward” (or consequence) of their action.
BUT……
The second order consequence of me learning a new language would be that I would become more valuable to clients and thus earn more money because I won’t have to outsource the work and may even afford me more opportunity, long term. Plus, I can create things that are in my head.
Here’s another example that I bet you can totally relate to-
You want to lose weight and get fit. The first order consequence is you will have to refrain from eating bad food that tastes good and you will have to exert yourself at the gym and do it on a consistent basis. <<<<—-Most people quit here.
The second order consequence is that you will look better in your clothes and will improve your health substantially over time<<<<—much better option.
First Order Consequences and SEO.
(or why most websites are dealing with poor decisions of the past)
So far, I have applied this to big goals. But the reality is that you can see 1st order consequences in nearly all decision making and sometimes consequences can have a domino effect.
Since I do SEO, let’s give an SEO 1st order consequence….
You want to rank organically in search. The 1st order consequence is that the time, energy and money that you devote to ranking will take away from utilizing other ad mediums effectively. This is assuming that you have a basic working knowledge of what it takes to rank (onpage SEO…and off)
But you also have 2 choices. Both potentially have the same outcome (2nd and 3rd order) but one takes more time and energy while the other is “automated” and “easy”. And both have different sets of risk vs. reward. Which one do you choose?
Of course, I’m talking about link building stategies. A year ago, had you chosen automated and easy, you would have ranked easy last year and struggled this year. Had you done it the other way, in which you formulated strategies to get real links, you may be in an entirely more positive place.
The second order consequence for “automated” and “easy” SEO is that you can trick the search engines and rank quickly. But then there is a third order consequence as well; the search engines could catch up to your game and you could lose rankings, killing all the hard work and time you invest.
The second order consequence for the harder option is that you will rank but it will take longer. But in addition to links, it is likely you will build relationships within your market’s community. The outcome is slower and harder but the end result gives a more solid foundation to leverage. Pretty cool right?
Utilizing First Order Consequences in Your Life
From my experience, the reason why we fail is because we tend to discount the seriousness of the 1st order consequence and therefore don’t go in ready to make the commitment necessary to reach the 2nd or 3rd orders.
I have done this many times in my personal life as well as my online life. I overshoot…over commit, thinking (or banking) on a time frame for a goal that will likely end in disappointment.
The times in my life where I’ve had breakthrough moments have been when I have forced myself to chip away daily and stay consistent with it. For me, it’s kind of like learning CSS…if you aren’t doing it daily (1st order), you will never get to the point where you can confidently do it for others and even make a buck or two doing it (2nd order).
So How Do You Utilize the first order consequence model into your life?
- Understand that all things worthwhile take time. Our life is a lot like dripping water on a mountain; eventually, it will erode the spot where the drip is and change the whole face of the mountain. What we do daily is the “drip”. If it stays tightly focused, you can (and will) change the area you are focusing on. Remember: most people won’t view things this way and quit. The pool will get smaller the closer to your goal you get.
- When in doubt, always choose the harder choice- There are couple reasons for this. First, growth happens quicker by choosing the harder option. Secondly, most of your competitors won’t choose the harder option, which will mean at the end, you will have a stronger edge and more leverage. SEO is the perfect example; the crowds went for paid link networks and link tiers rather than focusing on developing link assets that could stand the test of time.
- Set tiny attainable daily or weekly goals- We all like to feel like we are moving forward but sometimes when our goals are bigger, the tiny increments of improvement don’t feel like movement forward is happening. I personally like to create mini goals for myself. For example, when I run, I always push myself to try to beat my previous time. My long term goal for squats is to eventually rep with 350 pounds. But weekly, I challenge myself to 5 pounds more. In fact, I don’t set my sights on the horizon but what is directly in my field of vision.
Image Attribution: Will Santino
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